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Keep an eye on it, but as of right now its forecasted for NE Gulf coast. Alabama really does need to be ready. 

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  • It's amazing to think that the most severe flooding seems to have happened after hundreds of thousands of new homes, and thousands of new roads were built on the north end of a waterflow basin.  

  • May god have mercy on your soles!

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More from a credible source, this, obviously deals with the Houston area,  but gives those curious about the storms brewing in the Atlantic a better understanding 

 

As one might expect in mid-September, the Atlantic tropics are sizzling. The National Hurricane Center has bumped up development chances for Invest 95L, now located near the Bahamas, to 80 percent over the next five days. There are some questions about where the center of this tropical disturbance will actually set up, and that will help determine its track. At present, most of the better modeling suggests a more northward formation, leading to a track that brings the storm to Florida, or keeps it east of the state, off the coast, like with Dorian. In any case, this is more tropical weather the Bahamas does not need. There is a lesser chance of a formation to the southwest, in which the bulk of the tropical system could drift westward, into the Gulf of Mexico. This might significantly increase Texas’ rain chances next week, but seems like the lower probability scenario for now.

There is also another system out there with a 40 percent chance of developing over the next five days. Right now, the odds appear to be against this system tracking toward the Gulf of Mexico.

annnnnd, maybe a cold front in the next 10 days or so

 

https://spacecityweather.com/a-hot-weekend-tropics-tracking-and-the-regions-first-front/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

2 hours ago, Dewey said:

More from a credible source, this, obviously deals with the Houston area,  but gives those curious about the storms brewing in the Atlantic a better understanding 

 

As one might expect in mid-September, the Atlantic tropics are sizzling. The National Hurricane Center has bumped up development chances for Invest 95L, now located near the Bahamas, to 80 percent over the next five days. There are some questions about where the center of this tropical disturbance will actually set up, and that will help determine its track. At present, most of the better modeling suggests a more northward formation, leading to a track that brings the storm to Florida, or keeps it east of the state, off the coast, like with Dorian. In any case, this is more tropical weather the Bahamas does not need. There is a lesser chance of a formation to the southwest, in which the bulk of the tropical system could drift westward, into the Gulf of Mexico. This might significantly increase Texas’ rain chances next week, but seems like the lower probability scenario for now.

There is also another system out there with a 40 percent chance of developing over the next five days. Right now, the odds appear to be against this system tracking toward the Gulf of Mexico.

annnnnd, maybe a cold front in the next 10 days or so

 

https://spacecityweather.com/a-hot-weekend-tropics-tracking-and-the-regions-first-front/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Joe Bastardi's video this morning was pretty blunt that he sees this thing staying off the east coast of Florida and becoming a hurricane hitting Chesapeake Bay next weekend. 

Mother nature trying to fuck with my 2019 No shutter challenge game...  

EEStYRtWkAsWBcG?format=png&name=900x900

That one isn't going to come anywhere near the Gulf and it's going to remain tropical storm, maybe a weak cat 1, come up Florida and turn out into the Atlantic before it hits the Carolinas.

Kind of a worst-case Dorian scenario, but it'ill be weak and move quickly so damaged will be fairly low, at least not catastrophic.some wind damage, if it moves fast not a lot of flooding, but Florida will flood easily of course.

In general I think it'll be okay.

the worst part is that it's supposed to take almost an identical path over the Bahamas, and although it'll be much weaker and move  faster than Dorian (which of course just sat there for 2 days),  it's just another damaging shot for an area that is almost beyond damaged now.

Edited by phdhorn

On the plus side, it can't really destroy anything in the Bahamas. If anything, maybe it'll help with the cleanup. Also, are we sure Bama is safe? 

TS for Florida is nothing, sucks for the Bahamas and their cleanup efforts. Man, I watch icyclones 30 minute youtube of Dorian, insane. Feel for those people. That's what Bolivar looked like after Ike, which hit today 11 years ago. Leveled 

18 hours ago, Loco said:

Mother nature trying to fuck with my 2019 No shutter challenge game...  

EEStYRtWkAsWBcG?format=png&name=900x900

But the real question is Alabama really safe from this storm?

Right now that's mostly an upper level low.  As it is, nothing.  It could form into a weak TS or cat 1 if conditions are right in the Gulf after the weekend (chances of some shear exist).  But worth keeping a look at.  Don't see it getting big/bad.

Basically, what phd said.

13 minutes ago, Welch said:

Basically, what phd said.

LOL fuck me. People here in Port A are already freaking out about this latest update. I’ve heard TWICE already this morning “it’s coming straight at us”.

My house can be a safe harbor for evacuating hot chicks.  I'm guaranteed to not get any rain.

My house can be a safe harbor for evacuating hot chicks.  I'm guaranteed to not get any rain.

That’s not necessarily what “nobody gets wet at my place” means.
My house can be a safe harbor for evacuating hot chicks.  I'm guaranteed to not get any rain.
That 2 bed 1 bath studio you call a house isnt going to work
1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:
2 hours ago, miguelito said:
My house can be a safe harbor for evacuating hot chicks.  I'm guaranteed to not get any rain.

That 2 bed 1 bath studio you call a house isnt going to work

To be fair, that sounds like a pretty f'n rad studio.

On 9/14/2019 at 12:43 PM, MNLonghornFUKM said:
On 9/14/2019 at 12:04 PM, miguelito said:
My house can be a safe harbor for evacuating hot chicks.  I'm guaranteed to not get any rain.

That 2 bed 1 bath studio you call a house isnt going to work

He's hoping they will have to sleep 2 per bed.

Not that it makes a difference but it seems tropical to me. 

Edit: Someone agrees. 

 

Edited by Telegraph_it

3 minutes ago, Xian said:

Officially a tropical depression 

predicted to become Imelda tonight.

Hopefully doesn't pull an Humberto 2007 and ramp up into a hurricane while hanging around just off the coast

It might.  Not uncommon for stuff in the Gulf in late Aug-Sept with the warm waters. 

But it's not going to be much of a worry.

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

predicted to become Imelda tonight.

Hopefully doesn't pull an Humberto 2007 and ramp up into a hurricane while hanging around just off the coast

Just became Imelda

8 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Just became Imelda

Commin' fo yo shoes!

We are supposed to fly out of IAH tomorrow at 12:30 to Milwaukee.   I am thinking about changing our flight to one out of Austin.  United has send out emails and texts about the weather and they are waving any fees for changing.

1 minute ago, kevwun said:

We are supposed to fly out of IAH tomorrow at 12:30 to Milwaukee.   I am thinking about changing our flight to one out of Austin.  United has send out emails and texts about the weather and they are waving any fees for changing.

I would if were you. While I doubt this will be a major storm, it will fuck up travel 

I tried to, but the waiver only applies if you keep the same cities.  Good job United, you fucking idiots.

Can you travel today?  It's fine down here now

No, the last flight leaves at 6.  We couldn't make it in time.

4 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I tried to, but the waiver only applies if you keep the same cities.  Good job United, you fucking idiots.

Probably should try giving United a call. My wife could not get home after Harvey due to the airport being shut down. United allowed waivers to Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio but as you would imagine, those flights were full. I called United to route her to JAC since her parents have a vacation home there. The first representative I spoke to would not do it, so I asked for a supervisor who cleared the ticket without me having to ask twice. 

It makes sense. United, or any airline except AA, should want to clear up itineraries when weather disrupts over multiple days. 

rain and wind have picked up here in Galveston. Is this thing taking 45 to the loop?  

I called and the lady said the same thing.  You have to keep the same departure and arrival city.  The only way we could have avoided Houston is if we had been connecting there.  I swear airlines try to make weather events as big of a clusterfuck as possible.  They should be encouraging anyone to fly out of a different city if it's possible.

Edited by kevwun

Just now, kevwun said:

I called and the lady said the same thing.  You have to keep the same departure and arrival city.  The only way we could have avoided Houston is if we had been connecting there.  I swear airlines try to make weather events as big of a clusterfuck as possible.

Damn, that is BS. I guess Harvey was different since when I called the airport was closed. 

TS Imelda? What a shitty name...

 

 

 

She's coming for her shoes.

 

Looks like the worst will be east of town.  Sorry Vidor.

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May god have mercy on your soles!

Issued 10 minutes ago....

 

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0860
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
442 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172041Z - 180241Z

Summary...As Tropical Storm Imelda continues to slowly drift
further inland, there will be an increasing threat of flash
flooding into the evening hours on the Upper Texas Coast. This may
include portions of the Houston Metro Area.

Discussion...There are two primary areas of concern for flash
flooding associated with Tropical Storm Imelda as it continues to
move inland late this afternoon and into the evening. The first
area would be associated with tropical rain bands to the east of
the track of the center, embedded within a ribbon of persistent,
enhanced moisture flux and stronger low-level flow in the eastern
semi-circle of the storm. Places around Galveston Bay would be the
most likely to be impacted by these rain bands. The second area
would be associated with increasing coastal convergence in the
coastal counties of Matagorda, Brazoria and Galveston. Winds
offshore would be likely to back slightly (increasing southerly
component) and remain stronger relative to over-land winds as
Imelda's center moves inland. This could increase convergence
closer to the coast, and coincide with a slight increase in
instability as more unstable air over the Gulf gets advected just
onshore. The combination of low-level convergence and instability
may support increasingly organized and stronger rain bands.
Overall, these expectations align with numerical model predictions
of the heaviest rain falling to the east and south of the center.
Given the slow motion of Imelda (likely to move only about 50
miles in 9 hours based on the official NHC forecast), organized
tropical rain bands may persist in these two areas for an extended
period of time, which would lead to an increasing flash flood
threat.

Rain rates in the stronger rain bands would be likely to reach the
2-3 in/hr range, and could exceed that if stronger instability can
develop onshore and coincide with low-level forcing mechanisms
mentioned above. If that occurs, rain rates into the 3-5 in/hr
range could occur on an isolated basis in the strongest, most
organized rain bands. Several gages in southern Harris County near
the Sam Houston Tollway and I-45 have measured 1.16 inches of rain
in 30 minutes (20:00 to 20:30Z), and 5-minute rain rates have been
as high as 0.36 inches. This is an early indicator of very high
instantaneous rain rates in the tropical rain bands, but thus far
the rain bands have been relatively narrow and transient relative
to stationary locations. However, if larger rain bands can become
established, more substantial hourly rain rates would be likely,
and this would be more likely to have notable flash flood impacts.

The concern for the overnight hours is if several inches of rain
from early rain bands pre-condition the ground along the Upper
Texas Coast this afternoon and early this evening, and then
another burst of convection develops closer to Imelda's center
overnight. Convection tends to concentrate closer to the center of
circulation in the overnight period of the diurnal cycle, and this
could enable additional heavy rain over areas that already
received heavy rainfall earlier in the day. The NHC forecast also
calls for the center to move very close to Houston by 06Z, which
would place a potentially favored area for nocturnal convection
directly over a major metro area. This will continue to be
monitored into the evening hours.

How long was she offshore? 15 mins? Though Houston will probably flood again. 

8 minutes ago, texasdago said:

5-minute rain rates have been as high as 0.36 inches.

Yikes.

Folks will use this as the excuse for why Galveston smells like balut.

Rain is strongest at night closest to the center? it's about to pass right over my house this evening. Shit. 

33 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Rain is strongest at night closest to the center? it's about to pass right over my house this evening. Shit. 

Be mindful of those newly cleaned carpets 

9 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

How do you get Imelda to go? Yell "Shoo!". 

Tell her it’s Hatch Chile season, and Id pay handsome for Hatch Chile chicken tamales ?

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