Hi everyone, long-time lurker, first-time poster.
So I've had this post on my mind for a while, and I thought the baseball team's recent stretch created a good opportunity to pull the trigger. Texas baseball is solidly into conference play in the fifth year of David Pierce's tenure and the question still remains: are we good this year? You may have seen us ranked #5 nationally to start this week, then get blanked 2-0 in College Station, and finish it off with a series sweep of Kansas. So what does it all mean?
First, a TL;DR: The 2021 Texas baseball team has several of the pieces to make noise this season, particularly in what looks to be an excellent pitching staff. But the offense lacks true top-end star production and top to bottom has concerning peripherals (especially in strike outs). Both sides of the ball have had very favorable luck so far - all signs suggest we are closer to Top 25 than Top 5 and regression going forward is likely. Now, Pierce's teams are nothing if not unpredictable and there's still a lot of season left, but with one year left on his contract we're probably heading for more questions than answers.
With that done, let's get to it, and take a look at the bats. Take a look here to see the stats I'm referencing. (Figure 1)
This breaks out into traditional usage and triple slash style stats, then the underlying peripherals (strikeout and walk rates and the % of our hits that go for extra bases or home runs). Finally, we've got more advanced stats including: wOBA which gives us a number scaled like OBP but properly weighting batting production and BABIP suggesting how lucky a player has been (and/or potentially the quality of the defenses we've faced). Initial takeaways are that this is pretty good! Starters are averaging an OPS of .800, which would be the best since Kody Clemens & co. went off in 2018. We're above average in OBP and SLG, which is supported by above average walks and xbH and homerun rates.
Problem is, we strike out a lot. Like a lot. Pierce's UT teams are usually average in Ks (~19%), so this year is a major spike and puts us well above the national average (A&M may not have been an aberration). We're also really lucky. Our BABIP is ~30-40 points higher than we've historically landed at. That's a lot, and almost certainly unsustainable. Even in 2018 (a very Cinderalla year where we had Pierce's best hitter in Kody) we had a starter BABIP of ~.325. To try to estimate the effect of this, I adjusted each players' and the teams stats to reflect a historically average level of luck + defense (a .315 BABIP), which yields us our "x"pected metrics for OBP and wOBA. Much more average than they initially appear. Looking at the history of Pierce's teams (Figure 2), emphasizes the above, plus we're probably lucky not just in production but in runs scored. Compare our wOBA this year to 2018 and the runs per game, suggesting we're probably scoring .25-.5 runs per game more than we "should" even before adjusting for BIP luck. Overall, the bats on this team aren't bad. You get the feeling Pierce is pushing a more power-heavy strategy, which is yielding higher xBH rates while sacrificing on strikeouts and walks. It's generally working, with some classic TTO peaks/slumps, but this is likely to get worse based on the underlying talent of the team - which is more average than great.
Speaking of, what about the players individually? Who's doing well, who's not doing well, and who's overrated? (Figure 1).
Who I like:
Cam Williams: Well, this isn't controversial. Cam has flashed some serious power and he's actually probably underperforming given his luck so far. Not a fan of the strikeouts and meh walk rate, but the power is worth it.
Mike Antico: Wait what? Yep, his slash line says bottom of the order but his advanced stats and speed say potential leadoff bat. Mike does his best Duke Ellis impression with a sky-high walk rate and propensity to steal, but without the massive strikeout issue (he's below average K%!) He's undervalued because of his BABIP, and some of that could be his contact quality (too high a flyout rate?), but I like him as an impact player the rest of the year. Hell, if you go by x.wOBA, he could be one of the best on the team.
Trey Faltine: At first glance you'd think he's more in the middle of the pack (and striking out 25%+ of the time is suboptimal). But his walk rate makes up for it and the power peripherals mean he gets it done when he makes contact. Quality production for a stud defensive SS.
Who I like less:
Ivan Melendez: Oof, I hate to say it, but that is ugly. Especially for a 1B/DH. He strikes out at 2x the acceptable rate, walks well below average, and has average power. He's propped up by a big BABIP, but this isn't going to last (the Kansas series just pushed him over an x.wOBA of .300) Nice experiment, but let's all agree to shut this down and lock Zubia at 1B for the year. He's not his 2018 self but he's still fine.
Mitchell Daly: Damn it, I was very excited about him from watching/listening. But those stats are standing on an insane .470+ BABIP, while adjusted stats suggest he's more 6-8 spot in the order quality. He doesn't strike out a ton and has some pop, but underlying peripherals are all too average for now. Looks (unfortunately) overhyped.
Douglas Hodo: Not quite as hyped as Daly, but still overrated due to his BABIP (he's actually already come back down to earth a bit - last week his BABIP was .400+). More strike-outs, low walks, and painfully poor power. Hodo at least has some defensive upside compared to Melendez, so I'd argue for giving Campbell a run at DH. (but seriously, how do we have these levels of production from nearly every corner spot??)
Overall, we're probably not a terrible team batting. But as we saw Tuesday, our bats come up empty a worrying share of the time, especially against above average arms. Beyond that, one thing that really strikes me about Pierce's offenses (other than the fact that they usually just cannot hit for power) is the lack of top-end 2-4 hole hitters and the poor performance of our multi-year starters (Zubia, Todd, Petrinsky, Kennedy). It struck me about the time that OU's Hardman hit what seemed like his fourth consecutive homer against us, but if you look at the class teams of the Big 12 - their rosters are littered with 1-3 high .900 or even 1.000+ OPS guys. Even with BABIP and park factors (the Disch is actually about dead neutral now) potentially affecting it, we just don't have those 2-3 really dangerous bats in the heart of the lineup. Kody is Pierce's only 1.000+ OPS hitter ever. And most years we're lucky to have 1-2 guys break 900. That's…troubling. What's worse, we have multiple starters who seem to have stagnated or even regressed during their time. Seriously, go back and look, 2018 Zubia had Cam Williams production and today he's striking out more than ever with no prayer of even double digit bombs? Now, baseball performance (especially with college sample sizes) is tricky and it's pretty common that guys stagnate or regress at any level. And to his credit, Pierce has some success stories: Kody Clemens, David Hamilton, Ryan Reynolds, even Cam. But my gut tells me we're either off by an entire tier of hitting talent, or we're just not developing them correctly.
On to pitchers (Figure 3). Same set-up: basic stats, peripherals/context metrics, then advanced and luck/BABIP adjusted metrics (note this is wOBA allowed, so we're looking for lower). Well this looks much better, and tracks with how we're thinking about this team. We're getting a lot of strike outs, limiting walks+HBP, and have below average HR rates (HR% here is on all plate appearances). That staff wOBA allowed looks really good and despite clear luck on the pitching side too (historical BABIP for our pitchers is ~.305-.310), our expected metrics still look very good (average D1 ERA/FIP is ~4.9). What strikes me looking at this is the depth of quality. We've got Ty Madden putting up a performance to-date that could rival Morgan Cooper's in 2017 as Pierce's best pitcher. We've got what look to be three average or plus starters in Stevens, Kubichek, and Hansen. And we've got serious depth in quality relief arms (Quintanilla is looking much more like his 2019 self!) headlined by Tanner Witt, who Pierce rightfully uses in any and all leverage occasions. Of course, there are a lot of potential caveats there. The staff still is likely getting pretty lucky. We haven't yet had to really stress the back-end of our bullpen thanks to long stretches from starters + Witt. Our overall SoS is about the same for the back half of the year, but with some big batting in-conference teams. And outside weekend starters, the sample size is really small for our other arms (relievers are notoriously fickle, remember Ridgeway?). But there's a lot to like here, and this look gives a lot more confidence that Pierce has a legit staff on his hands, with the upside to even be his absolute best. Take a look at the past few years (Figure 4) and tell me you don’t have a good feeling.
Put it all together, what's the takeaway of all this? Are we good? Well - maybe (how's that for hard-hitting insight). We're not #5, that's for sure. Boyd's Worlds ISRs have us bouncing in the 20-30 range, which feels closer to me. I really do think the pitching staff has got something cooking. We look set to be in the mix for the conference. And as 2018 will tell you, Pierce can get it done in the postseason - don't put him past sneaking into a memorable year. But we've got a tough conference road ahead with Tech, Okie State, and TCU all ahead of us. And despite some mixed, but overall strong-seeming performances at the plate, the numbers suggest those are likely to regress. All-together, I'm cautious, but I still like this team a lot would love to be proved wrong. So let's go earn a regional host and head to Omaha, Coach. Hook 'em.