I'm expecting a 2020 map except Trump flips Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. 281 to 257.
I looked at 538 averages by those 3 states and where they ended up in 2020 and then looked where the sit today. Wildcard will be Dobbs driver. Women/men turnout split has been 53/47 +/- historically and that needs to be 55/45 for Harris to win imo.
I listened to Paul Tudor Jones this morning on CNBC and he said he expects deficits to increase $500B under Trump and another $600B on top of that if Harris wins. So, at least according to him, we are pretty fucked either way. Minsky moment potential on mid/long dated treasuries.
Look, I saw the initial clip and was not very impressed with her answer. Bill followed up with another question and she gave, in my opinion, better answer. 60 minutes edited out the first answer for a reason.
Here is the edit in written form from a politico reporter
For someone like me that wants to compare to previous elections to draw inference about what is going to happen this year, this is a good reminder that the electorate is shifting.
I thought this was an interesting question so looked up fiscal response by Germany and the UK. Guessing numbers will be similar to France, Lithuania, Spain, etc.
Germany
156 billion (4.7% of gpd) 3/20
130 billion (3.9% of gdp) 6/20
60 billion (1.7% of gdp) 3/21
UK
Spent 310-410 billion pounds. (15% ish of gdp)
US
5.1Trillion (3.3 in 2020 and 1.8 in 2021) 13% and 7%, respectively in those 2 years.
It was a combination of factors and believe that supply chain issues started the inflation issue and over stimulus by lots of governments exacerbated the problem.
I have downloaded it multiple times to watch on a flight and just can't seem to ever even start it. I love me some DDL but there is nothing interesting to me about that film.
NO CR, just answering your question with a different view. Couple of guys that worked for Obama think it was the American Rescue Plan that supercharged inflation. Party line vote that VP Harris was the tie breaking vote on. To use your line, Harris supporters do not acknowledge or realize this. It is not straightforward and you won't be able to pin 'inflation' on one political party or their leaders.
https://larrysummers.com/2021/05/24/the-inflation-risk-is-real/
I've heard two pretty smart people mention that a possible concern is rate cuts preceding a recession will lead to more stimulus and increased bipartisan government spending. Meaning investors require higher yield. Flows typically move to treasuries in times like that, which drive down yields, but that may not be the safe move if inflation reignites. You might actually have yields spike.