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Hank Chinaski

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Everything posted by Hank Chinaski

  1. Sure, no need to play Chas. No urgency. Makes total sense.
  2. “Analytics” in this case is about describing probabilities. “it isn’t always right” doesn’t really mean anything at all. The most elite hitters in baseball make outs 60% of the time. But the odds of scoring more runs are enhanced by giving your best hitters - those with the best odds of not making an out/hitting the ball hard - more opportunities in situations that are more conducive to scoring. It’s really not that complicated. Increasing your odds of scoring increases your odds of winning. Even increasing the odds by what may seem like tiny amounts makes actual differences over a large enough sample. (Like the scheme in Office Space where they take fractions of pennies off of every transaction.) So yeah, you can agree with Jeff Bagwell when he makes fun of of exit velo - because anecdotally someone hits the ball hard and it’s an out - but to do so obviously misses the entire point, which is that the harder a guy consistently hits the ball, the better he is likely to produce. It doesn’t mean the hardest hit balls always have the best results. It doesn’t seem like it should be necessary to even have to explain that.
  3. Sense of urgency indeed.
  4. Chas has 3.6 fWAR in 90 games. So basically he’s having a 5-6 win season. For reference, Kyle Tucker has never had a 5 fWAR season. But sure, let’s rest him when we’re in the thick of a playoff race. We’ve had no urgency all season long, why start now?
  5. Yeah. And reminder that Texas had zero players drafted in 2022. Whatever Herman’s classes were ranked, his roster resulted in a class without a single player drafted. (This was also Sark’s first roster.) I don’t think we are going to see that under Sark. We had 5 guys drafted last year, and we are looking at almost certainly more than that next spring. He and his staff seem to have a better grasp on roster acquisition and development than Herman and his crew did.
  6. I mean, there’s a pretty good chance that the only problem in October is that we’re done playing.
  7. I mean, I’m still trying to square the logic from years ago about how (1) Mack wasn’t a good coach (he just out-talented teams), (2) VY wasn’t that good (he was just surrounded by talent), and (3) Texas’s overall talent wasn’t that good (recruits get bumped up because they were going to Texas)…and they maintained these arguments despite Texas going 24-1 over a 2-year span. Once I figure this out, I’ll try to help with the 2023 version.
  8. Not that far.
  9. Disagree. The 90-ish win forecast back then accounted for Altuve and Yordan coming back (without them it doesn’t resemble a 90-win team at all), and I always thought Chas was good. Diaz is better than we thought, sure, but the 90 win forecast also accounted for bad managing, which is why we haven’t taken advantage of Diaz being good. We’ve added JV, which sort of offsets the fact that Javier isn’t good anymore (which we didn’t know in April). We’ve added Graveman, which means we have an extra mediocre middle reliever, which is fine but doesn’t meaningfully change much.
  10. In late April this team looked like it was destined for 90-ish wins and a dogfight for the last WC spot. Nothing has really changed.
  11. Uhhhhhhhh…gonna have to disagree with your choice of words. If you said “higher profile” or “in a more marquee conference” or something, ok. But “more appealing”? Nah. Neither CS nor TAM per se is more appealing than almost any alternative.
  12. I think he means 8th / 9th.
  13. It worked great for, you know, the fucking Astros.
  14. I mean that ship has already sailed, no? As for 2024 - let’s just get back to having an aligned and analytically-savvy front office/manager combo. I don’t want to hear another goddamned thing about “intangibles” and “there’s no way to measure it.” Bullshit.
  15. Nope. And it’s not a fluke.
  16. I guess Maldy didn’t relax Pressley enough.
  17. Remember when we used to be a smart organization? You know - one that won a lot? That was cool.
  18. Goddamnit. Read this: It's not easy to put a metric on: How does he instill confidence? How does he let a pitcher relax so they can focus on executing a pitch, rather than thinking about what pitch they should be throwing? You know, those things don't get measured. Our pitching coach said this. It actually is fucking easy to put a metric on it: the pitchers’ fucking performance? Who gives a flying fucking shit how “relaxed” or “focused” the pitchers are if the production doesn’t improve? If it mattered, it would be evident and measurable. For fuck sake. Why does anybody give any credence whatsoever to this fucking jet stream of bullshit? When someone talks about “things that don’t get measured,” they’re generally full of fucking shit and making stuff up. Do you believe in magic and the goddamned tooth fairy too? Don't worry guys - we are significantly worse offensively and defensively with Maldy, but the pitchers are relaxed (while also giving up more runs).
  19. I’d say no because we’re better than that Baker Mayfield trash, and because it’s football and not pro wrestling. But I’m an old.
  20. So, is it your contention that it isn’t petty for a conference commissioner to cheerlead for one member over another, and that it isn’t petty when his second in command takes passive-aggressive jabs at a member school, based (I guess?) on a perceived slight, which is actually just that school making a sound business decision? That seems petty to me. You’re comparing the conference office openly disparaging a member, and expressing a desire for a specific outcome in a game, to fans on message boards suggesting that the Texas AD ran the conference? Again, I expect professionalism and impartiality from the conference office; I don’t expect that of slapdicks on message boards. Look, none of this is really that big of a deal, and not even really something anyone should be upset about - we agree there. It just seems like a poor way for the conference execs to present themselves, as they come off as scorned children.
  21. Disagree. I don’t think it is unrealistic to ask him to be professional, seeing whereas this is a business and this is his profession. His job got harder? Tough shit. In the famed words of Donald Draper, “that’s what the money’s for.” If he chooses to take things personally, well, that’s why terms like “petulant” and “petty” are being used.
  22. 1. However you want to spin it, a conference commissioner cheerleading for one conference member over another is bush-league bullshit for obvious reasons: it implies favoritism and an uneven playing field. It’s petty and a bad look. Maybe games will be officiated fairly, there probably is no conspiracy, but all a conference commissioner accomplishes by saying this publicly is the casting of doubt on the league’s integrity. It’s childish at best (and corrupt at worst). 2. McGuire isn’t particularly original with the “take aim at Texas” schtick. That’s what Briles did and others have used that playbook too. Again, it comes off as petulant and contrived. But it’s one thing for a coach to blather to his constituents about it in a pep rally setting; that’s just playing to your crowd, and is fine. A conference commissioner doing it is unprofessional and, again, petty.
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