Everything posted by Hurtlocker
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Realignment talk not going away
Yeah I don't think its ever got to that point with anyone. Nearly all I can remember negotiated out. Maybe SDSU will test that.
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Realignment talk not going away
That doesn't mean they're not enforceable in court, just that two parties agreed to negotiate a different settlement.
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Realignment talk not going away
Well, that's the timing thing. If they announce prior to this year ending (by July or August, i can't tell) then they'd lose the revenue for next year as a buyout. They'd also likely have to pick up the Comcast difference too. If they wait until after the next fiscal year ends, then they'd have to stay a year longer, e.g. into the first year of the new contract, which would then be whatever revenue is earned in 2024-25. But, the downside then is you have to sign a GoR to get on the next contract, so, you'd have to break that. Their window to move anywhere is before the next fiscal year starts, whenever that is. After that, they're going to be there for a while. If Comcast is $5m, and the buyout is $35m, and the new PAC contract is $25m, and the Big 12 pays like advertised at around $7m more per year, Colorado/AZ would break even right before the start of the next B12 contract.
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Realignment talk not going away
So....i went to track it down again and the B12 is 7/1 - 6/30. Here's the bylaws: Seems the Pac goes 8/1 - 7/31, here's from their handbook: Their Gor though, at least the reference to it, I'm guessing they have a tighter version of this somewhere, is started in July... It's a bit messy, but we're coming up on the window of "if you're going to jump, you need to jump now". That jump will cost them a year revenue, if I'm reading it right.
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Realignment talk not going away
I don't know this one, i haven't read the Pac's agreement. The B12 is August to July, as is I think the SEC's, so I just assumed they all kind of lined up that way.
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Realignment talk not going away
This. There are TWO agreements and both are equally binding. They just have different terms. Texas and Oklahoma had to settle their buyout AND their GoR to leave, not just one. The game change was for the GoR, the $100m was for the buyout.
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Realignment talk not going away
Ok something is getting lost in translation here. For the sake of argument, ignore all things GoR for a moment. Colorado and Arizona are contractual members of the Pac 12 and have various agreements dictating what happens if they want to leave, etc. This is in addition to that thing we agreed not to talk about. Leaving a conference has a buy-out amount on its own, regardless of any media deal. I am not sure what the Pac's is, but for the Big 12 it was two years of conference revenues. Money aside, the notice is important because it starts the leaving clock. If the Pac has to give notice 1 year out, then that notice has to occur before the end of that financial year. This is why you saw Texas/Oklahoma/UCLA/USC announce basically on the last days of July. Had they waited a week, the clock would have started at the beginning of the NEXT financial year. Why that's important: If Colorado and Arizona want out at the end of the Pac contract, which is the end of next year, they need to announce that intention by July 31st of this year. If they do not, they, technically - we all know how negotiations work so lets just avoid that conversation for the moment, cannot get out until July 31st of 2024-25, a year after the Pac 12 media contract expires. They either now need to pay more to get out faster, or they fucked themselves and have to get on the Pac's deal or no one will put them on TV in 2024-25.
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Realignment talk not going away
Right, two different things though. SDSU's window is July, after their buyout doubles. Texas and Oklahoma both paid $50m to BUYOUT, their GoR was settled with timing and a Michigan/Texas game for Fox. The Pac GOR ends next year, so no one would sign another one and then leave. So they get an easy out saying they're gone next year, but they still have a notification window and, generally, that is a year, or two in the B12's deal, after the current. If they notify, they're leaving in the next month, they can be on another contract next year. If they notify in August, they can be on another contract a year after, since the fiscal year would have changed. And THAT is the huge deal. Because now they have to sign any deal the Pac has or they're in no-mans land
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Realignment talk not going away
This stuff TK is saying is the entire reason for the deadlines. Like the SDSU fiasco, notifications have to occur within windows, or fuckdom occurs. For the Pac, its before the next financial year
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Realignment talk not going away
I love how Nebraska's rival 20 years ago was Oklahoma. Now it's Iowa, and it's the only one....and its protected.
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Realignment talk not going away
You're joking right? I'm more they won't take Utah over each of those two
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Realignment talk not going away
Jesus, unequal AND $23m?! To get the Ducks and Huskies to $32m, the other eight would only clear $20m. My guess is unequal is in any future post season revenue since they can't budget for it yet, unless you're Washington State.
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Realignment talk not going away
They can stop it very, very easily. At some point, without an anti-trust exemption, CFB needs political help to reduce access. Much of the move from 2 to 12 in recent years has been for providing more post season opportunity optics as it has been increasing money. CFB is the only NCAA sport with so few schools routinely represented in the post season and that raises eyebrows. The NCAA has tried for decades to get the NFL's antitrust exemption and if they couldn't do it I guarantee you that the B1G/SEC can't do it on their own. The only way to shake it more is to break away fully from the NCAA for a single sport. Conferences would kind of cease to be and it would move to this organization. But even then, due to not having the exemption, the organization would need to offer a path to joining or these universities would start to be treated as businesses. So, having 6 autos isn't frowned upon by the SEC/B1G even if they say "it should be the best 12" because by allowing the autos they stay out of federal hearings on their financial structure. And they would, once states lost access, those politicians would start banding together and it would be a huge mess. On top of that, it doesn't really gain them anything. The B1G and SEC are already going to get 3 each in, they're going to restructure the financials so the B12 windfall of the CFP doesn't occur anymore, you'll get paid by the number of teams you have in your conference, for one, and, likely, performance over time, as another. In short, their battle for a 4th team, just isn't worth the fight.
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Realignment talk not going away
There are 4 byes that go to the top 4 highest ranked conference champions.
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Realignment talk not going away
Worst case is probably the AAC
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Realignment talk not going away
Yeah my brainiac cousin fucked up round one of going to school with booze and drugs and the family drama had him pegged as the washout. Then got his shit together and went this route to lean into his geek and climbed the corporate ladder easily. His Aggy sister, on the other hand, is now a hot mess.
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Realignment talk not going away
California is like Chicago and NYC/Philly/DC though - more kids than local schools. I'd guess the biggest out of state enrollment for Wisconson, Indiana, Iowa and Iowa State is Chicago, just like NYC kids flood the entire east coast. It doesn't matter if Colorado even has sports, it will still have 12% of its enrollment from Cali. 15% of CSU's enrollment is from Cali/Texas/Illinois
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Realignment talk not going away
Colorado made $5m less than Kansas State last year, the lowest revenue school in the B12, while running a $10m deficit. They'd move for the daily deal at McDonalds at this point.
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Realignment talk not going away
Agree, and Primetime still kind of lives there Yeah no doubt. It was more a sign they have so few good options.
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Realignment talk not going away
Assuming Colorado and Zona bolt, seems most likely. At that point though are you better off with Boise or CSU or Fresno? Or hell, do you elevate and invest in Fullerton, who has like 35-40k students, in Orange county to get more SoCal? Id not want to be in their shoes if UC/AC leave, because I doubt the rest will stick together fully.
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Realignment talk not going away
Yeah its the same math the Big 12 had at 10. Either you can move the needle already, or you need to invest in someone to move the needle later. But, with no one for the Pac to move immediately, they're in a bind. I saw one Big 12 administrator comment, and I wish i could find it again, when asked why they're in a better position than the Pac 12, they said something along the lines of "Well, because we have fans west of us." Also, this:
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Realignment talk not going away
So...i went and looked at their current roster and here's where they reside: SoCal - 11 Colorado - 11 Non-SoCal/Colorado Pac States - 8 Big 12 States - 24 Everywhere Else - 19
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Realignment talk not going away
They lost SoCal, which was kind of their entire reason for going to the Pac originally along with ensuring they had a seat in the Pac 16, they didn't gain financially from it. I'm not sure how much benefit they get out of NoCal and if you're fighting in LA without even the option to play in LA, like they could with USC/UCLA, does it become a better pivot to head to Dallas and Houston?
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Realignment talk not going away
Yeah all this, unless the Pac is at 8 or 9, then money be damned.
- Realignment talk not going away
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