With all other wins the same.
At 9-2 with no tosu with the Florida loss and Georgia blowout we'd likely be at #14ish right now.
8-3 with closer loss to Georgia and we're #14ish right now.
9-2 with either the tosu or Georgia result reversed and we're #8ish.
The Ohio state game does more good than bad.
In 2023 at 11-1 without Alabama we're not in the playoffs. The committee would have taken the undefeated teams and left us out. They only snubbed fsu because Texas and Alabama played that game
We've got 11 years of a sample size. Outside of a couple playoff seeding changes they have only dropped 2014 TCU and 2023 FSU that i could find. Both of those are outliers with the first being the first playoff and the second FSU losing their qb.
The committee operates differently than the AP. They don't flip flop teams weekly after wins. If a team in front of you wins out you're not jumping them. Texas needs other teams to lose at this point
If we beat them they'll likely drop to #7 with a matchup against #10 Bama/BYU/Utah/Miami
A SEC championship loss gives them the #5 seed and a game against #12 Tulane. Lol
I think we can jump them with a bad big 12 championship loss as well so may not be necessary if it gets to that point
Blues guaranteed in after today's results.
We need to get to Alabama's spot.
As of this moment we are #16 with USCs loss today.
this evening and next week will need 6 losses from the following list to get to #10.
Oklahoma vs LSU
ND Vs Stanford
Bama vs Auburn
BYU vs Cincinnati/UCF/tech
Utah vs Kansas
Miami vs Pitt
Vandy vs Tennessee
If Tech loses the big 12 championship we are effectively eliminated unless all 7 lose and it turns into a beauty contest.
They wont be in the seccg with a loss to Texas so they are locked in unless they lost tomorrow. I did this exercise and it would take some 2007 level insanity to happen for the next 10 days for this to even get close to happening.
Texas' path to the 10th spot and playoff birth
Needs:
Finish 9-3 with wins over Arky and Aggy
Move up 7 spots and get to the 10th seed to avoid ACC and G5 champs
Teams that can still drop enough for Texas to jump.
#8 Oklahoma- Games vs Mizzou and LSU. Need 1 loss here
#9 Notre Dame- Syracuse is the only game left they could lose.
#10 Alabama- A loss in the iron bowl to Auburn is always a possibility. A SECCG loss does nothing for us unless it is a major blowout.
#11 BYU- Cincinnati is their final test this weekend. Would need this or a Tech blowout in the Big 12 championship.
#12 Utah- Finishes with the Kansas schools who are both down this year. Need 1 of 2.
#13 Miami- Pitt in the final week is the final hope. Likely out of the ACC championship so would be an at large competitor to ND if both finish 10-2
#14 Vandy- Tennessee in the final week looms large. A 10-2 Vandy and 9-3 Texas would be a tough convo for the committee who seems to not care about H2H this year.
#15 USC- A loss to Oregon tomorrow does the trick. If USC wins tomorrow then they will be the leader in the clubhouse over Texas.
#16 Georgia Tech- With an almost certain loss to Georgia they will need to win the ACC to get in.
I feel we will move a minimum of 2 spots with the Vandy H2H and a likely loss for USC this weekend. Miami and OU could easily lose one more. Utah should win out but they have been middling most weeks.
Just finished the Urban and Florida doc on Netflix and a few things stood out to me.
In 2007 Georgia embarrassed Florida and in 2008 they curb stomped then 49-10.
I'm 2008 Florida dominated Alabama before Bama skull fucked Alabama by 3 scores.
Both Meyer and Saban hated losing so much that they devoted every fiber of their being to avenge a game they believed they should have won that it resulted in q championship the next year.
That's the difference in our coach vs the elites in cfb. Nothing to do with programs, just the HC taking charge vs a guy who couldn't be bothered to realize his shit doesn indeed stink.
Couple of notes on Freeman for those pushing for him.
He is 40 years old and here are all the places he has played or coached with yellow being his birthplace and high school. His stint in Houston lasted about 3 months on the practice squad. He is not leaving the North east.
Also IMO he is not proven yet.
Year 1- Loss to 3 win Stanford and Marshall and Ryan Day
Year 2- 3 losses including a loss to Ryan Day and some good wins.
Year 3- Lost to Northern Illinois at home before rallying to make the playoffs. Beat an over ranked Indiana, QB less Georgia in a weird scenario, and beat James Franklin before losing to Ryan Day.
Year 4- Lost to Miami and a&m before winning out against an easy schedule. Playoffs TBD.
Record vs Upper end Coaches
Ryan Day 0-3
Smart- 1-0
Riley- 3-1
Swinney 1-1
Brohm- 1-1
Elko 2-1
Washington is a much better program all time than ole miss. 3 coaches have played for national championships or in the playoffs since the 1990s. Sark never had them competitive in that discussion in any year.
Ole Miss hasn't been relevant annually since the 1960s.
Ole Miss ten 10 win seasons. Lane has 3 of those.
Ole Miss has fifteen top top 11 seasons. Lane is about to get his 4th.
Washington has fifteen 10 win seasons. Sark has 0 of those.
Washington has 17 top 11 seasons. Sark has 0 of those.
And CDC has always done a good job of limiting damage in these scenarios.
Herman to Sark was a day of hiring/firing to minimize negativity and maximize publicity as Alabama was in the CFP.
Shaka to Beard was a week officially but that was only to minimize buyout paid to Tech,
Peirce to Schloss was a 24 hour transition.
Terry to Miller was a day of fire and hire.
If this needs to be quick it will be quick and I assume it will be on Sunday after thanksgiving if needed. If things can be kept under wraps I assume we are in mid to late December,
Desmond Howard spends every weekend with Thamel and has been all over the country this season so him hearing second hand info is not surprising. If he was a journalist he would sit on it like most do until the time is right. Don't act like he is just some former player sitting on his couch all day tweeting and posting his thoughts on a situation