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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. Roger Moore isn't throwing down with Bautista, either, and I'm confident Ferguson could handle the physicality on film better than Brosnan. #teamRebecca
  2. So I finished the FDD podcast about Iran and it's a lot of "we were alive during the revolution and here's an academic assessment." That shit irritates me because I know all that stuff already, moreover it's the kind of thing you talk principally about if you really don't know what's going on (aka, the expansive Persian diaspora method). That said, one of the guests (the Iranian dude, I think) said something to the effect of "the people at the protests heard Trump's words of support. He'll look weaker if he does nothing now than if he takes an actual to little long-term effect", which was interesting. He added "the US needs to support the protesters/anti-regime because it's their only chance to have a hand in picking the winner."
  3. I’ve come around to the idea that this is actually a decent lane to run in. You were able to capture his appeal in one sentence and it’s at least interesting enough that a lot of voters would be curious in knowing a little more about him. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s that versatile beyond an economic message that’s consistent with his religious beliefs (and maybe doesn’t speak to wide swaths of primarily Hispanic Texans who are doing better than their parents). He doesn’t seem to have an intuitive sense of what gets attention (though I think you can supplement that with good staffing), his resume is light and he really needs a wife that helps pull in the Beth Moore voters.
  4. The FDD (informed by Mossad, or more likely IDF, put the civilian death count at 12k-20k. I think what I’ve read elsewhere has speculated as 2k. If true, they aren’t taking any chances.
  5. I think we’re doing San Sebastián, but the breathtaking AirBnB cost is making me think the south of France can’t possibly be more expensive, so subscribed.
  6. Haha, I went down that rabbit hole the other day because vaguely ME looking supermodels with a foreign policy fetish are my jam.
  7. I guess my TL:DR is you sound like a kid who just discovered there’s no Santa Claus and that sense of disappointment has made you broadly pessimistic of everything. Lest I sound ruder than intended, I get it. My wife’s family sounds a lot like yours, moreover my wife (who is VERY progressive) said the other day “God, I wish Trump would just bomb Khamanei”, and she wouldn’t trust him to execute a shopping trip to HEB in a different context. I don’t want to exaggerate this, but I was formerly a little plugged into the veteran foreign intelligence community in Austin and that used to be a good source of more tempered intelligence analysis. Unfortunately they don’t know a lot more than we do or can’t share. That said, I don’t think it’s as hopeless as your video links describe (although let me admit, I’m not watching 30 minutes of that). At some point the Iranian regime is going to collapse, either under its own weight or because we finally get our own shit together and help it along.
  8. I think I've made my skepticism of broad Iranian support for a return of the Shah clear up thread, but you also sound a little stuck in a skewed view as a result of steeping yourself in the Iranian expatriate refugee mentality. I don't think it's likely that ANY opinion held by the diaspora is particularly meaningful in understanding the unpredictable nature of what comes next for Iran. Unfortunately the relative lack of intelligence escaping from the region is making it very difficult to assess whether this is just another in a long line of protest flare-ups. It certainly seems like the regime has gotten very skilled at letting the people get some of their revolutionary energy out before suppression is enforced and it's back to sporadic civil disobedience but mostly under control.
  9. I agree it's a bad look and having actual staff monitoring the place is part of their appeal. That said, wait staff is taking an order before the film starts, and is otherwise a runner. It's just not really a job meriting a more personal touch.
  10. This is crossing streams with the James Talarico thread (moreover, apologies for quoting my own previous post), but I wanted to point out that noted Surly Cloak Room favorite Talarico said this, too, in his Ezra Klein interview. It was one of his most pointed criticisms of the Democratic Party.
  11. And yet....there is absolutely nothing the Dodgers are doing in regards to international amateur scouting, signing, and development, that's fully within Crane's power (and purse) to do, as well.
  12. Catching up on Burton‘s podcast, just wanted to highlight something about which I was wrong (probably more accurate to say I was in doubt and too lazy to research it, but tip of the cap to @closetojumping who had it correct). Spring 2026 grads, per Burton, must enter the portal now in order to change schools over the summer. Presumably this has the consequence of forcing them to stay with the current team (if they are wanted and have the option) or spend the spring training on their own.
  13. I also think the Dodgers suspect new rules will further penalize such spending largesse and are going to strike while the iron is hot. I would suggest that Crane take a cue from this but a) the Astros don’t have that incredible tv deal and b) going slightly over the tax is foolish. You either commit to it and go way over or stay under.
  14. I don’t have a problem with them spending the money and I don’t like salary caps, but I do think MLB should consider adding a team in the LA market. Moving the A’s there, instead of Las Vegas, fixes two problems potentially.
  15. Tuscaloosa has a pop of around 100k…Corvallis is 62k. I guess that means one less Outback and two Red Lobsters.
  16. James Talarico with Ezra Klein Interesting interview and Ezra does a good job of gently poking at some of the weak spots in candidate Talarico. My TL:DR is I still think Talarico isn't a great candidate (I wish he'd have run for something lower stakes), but I'd absolutely join his congregation. He reminds me a bit of Nadia Bolz-Weber, for anyone who's familiar with her writing, in his effort to interpret (or re-interpret) scripture as a more radical, more modern expression of divine guidance. @Brisketexan has written on this sympathetically, too, (either he got there himself or in coordination with his wife's divinity education). This might be just my political instincts, but I love the switch from charisma vacuum/compulsive texter Colin Allred to Jasmine Crockett to help Talarico elevate his game. I think he needs to get a little dirtier, a little more playful, more fun, and Allred wasn't going to pull that out of him.
  17. This scene was such a standout that it made the movie around it a little worse for not measuring up. Before X-Men First Class was greenlit there was a bunch of concepts in production, and one was just young Magneto on a Nazi vengeance tour. I've never seen an interview with the two original screenwriters on First Class, but at a minimum it has to have inspired this scene, and may have been taken directly.
  18. Most of my professional peers on the mortgage side, builders I know, hell even realtors, most likely voted for this. Of course they now complain about chaos.
  19. It’s a Cuban 17, which may mean he has the knees of someone 37.
  20. Just to be clear, I wasn't trying to make a comparison between Kiffin and Saban. DeBoer is a good coach, Sarkisian is a good coach, Cignetti obviously is good. I think we're going to see a lot of good coaches that fail because organizational competency in areas unnecessary five years ago are going to be paramount and early adopters are going to have an advantage against anyone trying to fight progress (aka, the Dabo method).
  21. I do, too--in a different universe (errrr...multiverse), Marvel Studios does a 6 ep miniseries introducing the team* and I think everything works better. *I'm okay skipping the origin story on this, too--it's more that film relies HEAVILY on the charisma of the cast to make you care about the characters and I don't think it works unless you're already a comics fan. You can do nebbish Reed because you've more firmly established arrogant Reed leads to Ben's disfigurement. You can make Johnny and Ben more central to the story by having their own adventures separately. Probably the best version of Johnny Storm I've seen is as a guest in Ultimate Spiderman (yes, I'm coming totally out of the closet nerd on this) where he's kind of a sheltered rock star on the outside but also very sweet and sincere. Roberto Aguirre Sacasa did a F4 run that had Sue demonstrate a degree of power that the film cribbed, but the way it left the team a little in awe was a missed note.
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