Also just came out that we might be getting a renewable fuels mandate waiver with already massive ethanol stocks. For commodity ags I’ve got massive 2008 flashbacks on going.
Cargill’s massive plant in Blair, NE is no bid til June, everyone else has puked 18-36 cents the last 24 hours. I don’t know if you could get a legitimate nearby wheat bid of any class anywhere right now. We’ve got a massive premium to Euro wheat, and aren’t going to moving anything until they catch us or we correct.
Funds are pushing the futures price to all time highs, but the actual cash prices are not keeping pace, and the end users aren’t stepping up to buy right now so futures will need correct lower or cash price will need to catch fire.
Since it relates to this thread, with the wild amount of fund buying piling into corn and wheat with everything going on the US cash markets for corn and wheat have ceased to function normally. For wheat basis has dropped sharply and most places are bidding off back months in a inverted market so the 1.50 futures move is almost flat cash price. Corn saw similar action today, and a number of corn processors have went no bid. 2008 meltdown is really the only other time we’ve seen this before. So it looks like demand is being rationed right now.
Well the 2010 crop failure in Russia/Ukraine helped spark the Arab Spring. I will note that Russia had been actively limiting exports all fall and winter, and on a grain basis while South America had struggled with soybeans this year, the corn behind beans has the weather set up as of right now to be massive, which would more than offset Ukraine. The spring wheat areas in the Dakota's and Canada are looking like they could bounce back big this year to off of a bad year. I'll note we blew out N/U spreads in wheat out over a buck today, and N/N a buck fifty at times, which indicates we maybe feeling a little better on the back end.
The good beef is cheaper than the less good beef. It takes longer and better feeding to grade out choice vs. select, so if select is worth more lighter weight cattle go to town sooner. If choice is soft you aren't moving the better cuts of beef for good restaurants and grilling like you should. Right now reported whole sale prices are the cheapest they've been since fall 2020 for the most part.
As an aside for this thread, we are now trading wholesale select boxed beef above choice which should pull lighter weight cattle forward, and is also probably a bad sign for food service demand.
I’ll just note that hog packing margins are very near going negative. This could stifle hog herd expansion short term if they throttle back kills. Flip side coming forward is a stupid amount of money is being thrown at domestic soybean crushing capacity for “renewable distillates” which if realized would throw off a fuck load of cheap meal to boost hog producer margins.