Everything posted by berlinerbaer
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‘Sup in China & Russia?
Coup in China? Quite the opposite. Xi is about to cement his rule for life.
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What's happening in Iran?
A democratic Iran, or any regime less hostile to the rest of the world, is an existential threat to the Saudis and most other ME countries. They will attempt to muck any transition up, or at least weaken any alternative nascent Iranian government as best they can. They do not want sanctions lifted and the global market flooded with Iranian oil, not when they have the world by the balls after Russia's screwup. The US needs to be ready to play diplomatic hardball with our so-called allies in the region who may have self-serving motives, but we need to show restraint. We have been terrible at picking winners and losers with regards to Iran since the 1950s. We should not get directly involved, but we have the authority to ensure other countries in the region keep their distance as well.
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All right you boys, how I feel about the upcoming midterms in Texas:
Going by yard signs only, you'd think we were in the midst of a red wave in my neck of the woods. It seems the other evil Nehls twin is mounting a spirited challenge to KP George for Ft. Bend County judge.
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Русский корабль - иди нахуй
As a sparsely populated democracy stuck between two hegemonic dictatorships, that is as close to spewing hot fire as Mongolia will get.
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2022 House elections
Quick question... where are you getting these numbers? I'm assuming they account for redistricting. I'm asking because 538, which puts the Dems odds of keeping the House at 30%, has NH-01 and NH-02 at 76% and 95% odds of going Dem, respectively. Those don't seem like even seats to me.
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China and Taiwan. Not good.
It's astounding to me that Taiwan still has territory so close to the mainland. If China was even remotely capable of taking Taiwan, those islands would have been conquered long ago.
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Русский корабль - иди нахуй
Am I the only one who thinks it would be easier for UKR to push Russia out of Crimea than the East? If Kherson get's recaptured, then resupply of Crimea from the North gets much harder and then there's only the Kerch bridge to take out and the canal to dry up.
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Realignment talk not going away
My mind's kinda blown that anyone cares about Jon Wilner east of the Rockies.
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Aug 2 primaries and beyond
NSIAP, he just ended that state's investigation into the 2020 elections, hopefully crushing to the morale of the most MAGA Wisconsin voters. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/12/wisconsin-assembly-leader-axes-2020-election-investigation-00051512
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Wife pulls the old "drano in husband's lemonade" trick
In all seriousness, Chinese like to poison each other. Even in the US, they aren't comfortable with firearms.
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The James Webb Space Telescope Thread
FIFY
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Ukraine War
Here is the article linked in the Ukraine thread a few days back. Looks like it'll be about 20,000 spread throughout Europe, bringing the total to 100,000, on rotation. Mea culpa. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-biden-madrid-jens-stoltenberg-de44b391b62aa3b9ccbd37ca12518f26
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Ukraine War
I'm all for Sweden and Finland joining. That sounds like organic NATO expansion and a real boost in financial and combat capability. I'm also in favor of arming the Ukrainians with pretty much whatever they want. It's a bargain compared to sending our guys over there. Speaking of which... we are now sending tens of thousands of troops to Poland permanently? Fuck that. Is NATO stronger or not? Could we fuck up Russia already as is or not? Weren't our European allies going to double their defense budgets? If we were asked to contribute that many, we should have said no and if we decided without asking then fuck us. Fact is, this conflict seems like an escape from our very real domestic problems for too many politicians (both sides) and, by the looks of it, too many normally liberal posters on this board (myself included).
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CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk
It's raging through the young population. It ran through my whole family a week ago after my kids brought it home from daycare. Nothing major, but holy shit this thing is contagious. Good news is that like 80% of America has now been inoculated one way or the other. That's why hospitalizations are fairly low and deaths are way down compared to prior waves.
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TX-34 Special Election- You decide what it means
Maybe. This seat is gerrymandered to be safe D and Vicente Gonzalez is a known commodity. Gonzalez' old seat next door (TX-15) is in real danger of flipping, however. It's one of the only competitive districts left in the state. The R candidate came within 4 points in 2020.
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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such
All four of us are finally dealing with this. Vaxxed 6 yo son had it over the weekend and had a fever for 12 hours then a headache and chest pains the next day, then all good. 3 yo daughter got it Tuesday with a full blown fever for 24 hours, now lingering at 99 and feeling good. There has been an outbreak at daycare and here we are. That's when I knew I was fucked because there is no avoiding a 3 yo who insists on either climbing into your bed in the middle of the night or making you sleep upstairs with her. I tested positive this morning after being negative Tuesday night. Feels like a flu right now which isn't so bad. My wife has been complaining about her throat and headaches but she' doing the best out of all of us. We are both vaxxed and single-boosted. Time to hunker down for the weekend.
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Unconscionable Corruption Can't Buy Off DUI
A political position that singlehandedly sets the House agenda, determines when votes can occur, and staffs committees - the second most powerful position in US politics - is prone to backroom deals and special interest. Who knew? Pelosi is no worse than Paul Ryan or John Boehner were. The role essentially requires a giant sign hovering overhead with an arrow pointing down below big red letters saying "I like favors, and stock. Or cash will do."
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The American Death Spiral and Your Plan
So much this. Disturbing that some of you would rather move to Belize or somewhere else to be utterly surrounded by poverty. If you look white, are older, male, and in the top 10% economically, America is and always will be structurally built to support you regardless of the status of democracy or how hot it is. Big oceans on both sides to keep the meanies out. A still-growing population that can support the elderly. Think about it. Europe may seem nice, but they are dependent on the outside for energy (Russia and ME), protection (US), and food. When there are global shocks, they always feel it more. I would rather have internal challenges to deal with than be under the thumb of a foreign power or have to worry about asshole neighbors. Besides, if America goes to shit, all the benefits of being American will go with it. Your dollars won't be worth that much anymore.
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Primary Night - Tuesday May 24
Down to the wire in the 28th. Cisneros leads Cuellar by just over one point with 70% in.
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Русский корабль - иди нахуй
So what?
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2022 Rain Thread
I was in Boerne and SA a month ago and everything looked bone dry. I haven't been out of SE Texas much in the last year and it was striking.
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Русский корабль - иди нахуй
I think the economic arguments hold water considering coercion was working out just fine for Putin until his buddy in Kiev got the boot in 2014's uprising. One of the things Yanukovich was doing until then, IIRC, was putting development of the country's O&G infrastructure on ice.
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Русский корабль - иди нахуй
From the outside, it may look like China is distancing itself from Russia and choosing the West. Domestically, their media is parroting Russian propaganda, including the latest round of garbage about bioweapons. I don't know which way they've shifted over the last 3 weeks.
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Ukraine War
- Русский корабль - иди нахуй
Wasn't there a State Department cable put out by Wikileaks that suggested after psych evaluation that Putin might have Asperger's? That would explain the very high competence in many areas and deficiencies elsewhere. It was the Pentagon, actually. - Русский корабль - иди нахуй
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