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texasdago

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Everything posted by texasdago

  1. Guess what, weather does what the F it wants. Case in point, Tomasco on CBS kept saying that these kinds of storms overperform and they usually come in faster than people expect. What happened? It overperformed. It came in faster and closer than originally forecasted. So, with that the temps dropped faster and we got sleet that turned into ice instead of trees covered with ice. Is that a pain in the ass as we wait for it to melt? Yes. Is it better than the "warmer" forecast which would have left us with .5" of freezing rain, downed trees and power outages? Also yes. The sleet saved our ass. Otherwise it would have been 2023 again and you would be bitching about loss of power/water/trees instead of inconvenience. Y'all are bitching we got the top "better" scenario than the originally forecasted middle scenario.
  2. Was walking through the area near Cat Mountain over the holidays (I like walking around hilly neighborhoods around town) and some of the driveways looked lethal when bone dry
  3. To be fair to people who live in this general area that is all zoned to AISD, a lot of those streets and driveways are steep as balls. If ice is still present (which is likely the case with shade), tell me how a school bus is going to make those routes. Same goes for Barton Hills, some of the back roads off of South Lamar (behind End of an Ear, etc) jimmy
  4. Taos looks so good right now
  5. Where did you see that? Just checked their page. Going to check socials.
  6. Was out in the yard... shaded patches are going to take a long ass time to thaw. Thick and super slick.
  7. Really wonder about steep neighborhoods with some roads that are very shaded. My brother's neighborhood is accessed by a long steep road surrounded by lots of trees. Only way to go in and out is that steep road. I think they're all screwed today. Some dumbass is going to come close to going off a cliff.
  8. The problem today is that people say, "I have a 4x4" but they forget a 4x4 can't compensate for a dumbass driver trying to go up a hill with shady spots that are still iced over
  9. Today is Dunning-Kruger day in Austin when hordes of drivers will go out thinking they can drive on ice and quickly FAFO. Just saw some of that in front of my house and was hoping the moron wouldn't hit my son's car.
  10. That's where I was. Slaughter though icy was fine. Going into turns on inclines was where things got a little squirrely
  11. My thoughts exactly. Way to trash the base is your board. Had to drive a short distance in SW Austin this morning. All roads were solid sheets of ice.
  12. No way they open tomorrow @Jiggy-Z I'm sure Circle Drive will get treated soon (or not). Can you imagine Fitzhugh now?
  13. Already here. There is ice forming on our back table that got wet last night. Wonderground says we're 30° and local forecasters say we're already there
  14. Uhhhh... Abraham Lincoln and Kirk Douglas, great-grandfather of Gabby Douglas held a debate or something. Signed, dago.
  15. To be fair its really hard to use spaghetti since it might break in half and that is problematic. Recommend these
  16. Welp, I run the dishwasher in the middle of the night to keep water flowing in the pipes. Sorry. (who's smarter now?)
  17. To keep the locals off of Dirty 6th
  18. You think that's happenin', huh?
  19. Chikage Windler for Austin: "Noon Friday update. Trying to not be swayed by each and every model run, but wanted to share that the HRRR model (hi-res model that I usually like) has INCREASED our potential ice amounts. If this verifies, the ice storm would be a greater concern for downed trees and power outages from I-35 points west through the Hill Country. It's worth noting that in contrast, the GFS model has a good amount of SLEET in addition to freezing rain, which dramatically lowers the ice accumulation. I suspect what actually occurs will be somewhere in the middle. So, be prepared for at least a MODERATE impact ice storm (icing on roads, travel not advised) and possibly some MAJOR impacts (trees downed, power outages) beginning Saturday morning in the Hill Country and Saturday afternoon in Austin, with the greatest ice accumulation likely Saturday evening and Saturday night."
  20. Already saw more than one Central Texas forecaster basically giving the heads up
  21. chefs kiss Avery Tomasco this morning: ⚠️FRIDAY AM UPDATE - The trend may not be our friend today. Cold air continues to trend **earlier**, temperatures may fall to freezing earlier, and our icing concerns may begin sooner rather than later. This is some very fresh data from our in-house IBM GRAF model, a favorite of mine when it comes to Arctic air masses. It shows temperatures falling to 32 or lower as early as 3 AM on Saturday morning to the north/northwest of Austin. The rest of the I-35 metro areas could see below-freezing temperatures around or after sunrise. This has important implications. During this timeframe, we expect heavy rain to be coming down on a widespread basis, and if temperatures are already dropping to a freeze, that means that at least some portion of this first batch of rain could gather as freezing rain. MAIN IMPACTS if this trend continues to look likely: 🔹Icing of bridges and overpasses could begin earlier than initially thought with black ice developing on untreated elevated roadways, though we could also see **treated** roads gather ice if the heavy rain washes away the pre-treatment that has been sprayed by TXDOT this week. 🔹This could marginally increase the overall freezing rain/ice totals through the entirety of the event, but I don't think that happens to a degree that changes the overall threats that we've discussed this week. Travel impacts are still expected to be widespread while power outage issues will generally be isolated. 🔹An overall colder trend may have us reverting to an original forecast that called for below-freezing temperatures from Saturday morning all the way through Monday morning and could keep ice on some roads for a little longer, perhaps into Monday morning. All of this to say that even 24 hours away from this winter storm getting started, there are still going to be some important shifts that we all need to pay attention to as we plan our weekend. Please continue to follow along closely. More updates to come on a busy Friday morning.
  22. Probability of .1 inch of frozen rain
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