If Trump loses, does he run again in 28? On one hand, O. L. D. On the other hand, he’s shown that he can push around every other R without even breaking a sweat and the position pays like none other in his life.
It’s also just dumb. State lines are arbitrary things then. It’s no different than saying you’re ceding the elections to the left 2/3rds of the country.
repeated claims on here that media promotes 50-50 as it generates clicks. biggest evidence against that: 2016 and 2020 were not promoted as 50-50s, even though they probably should have been. Clinton has 71% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ Biden has 89% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
why did these pundits suddenly realize 50-50 generates more clicks? biden was never close to 50-50 the whole year, clinton pinched down toward 50-50 twice, but spent much more time in the 75% range.
These hurricanes are really big deals. I bet there are millions spread between FL, GA, and NC -- all important states in this election -- that simply won't vote because they are too busy getting their lives back together. We talk about whatever Muslim group in MI or whatever. These two weather events will outpace them all.
I think it just shows the limits of this tool. We are using a hacksaw to cut things that have to be measured in micrometers. We live in a 50.1% world, and polls are made for 55-45s.
There are six males in my family. Catholic. Two Longhorns two Aggies two Red Raiders. We try not to talk politics at all, and we still have very good relationships with each other. Even with that unstated politics ban, they know what I think about Trump.
Of the five others, I can tell three have wanted to suggest to me they think Trump is a retard and a joke. Expressions not made pre-2020. So from my vantage point it still feels like defections must be happening from his camp. Maybe it’s Jan 6. Maybe it’s just the passage of time has beat down all the self delusion that gets constructed around these voters.
You have a tweet from a guy that you know wants you to hate entire groups of people. How much thinking do you do before spreading it onward? Do you think, ‘Wow, me latching onto this message instantly says something about me’? All sorts of questions like that go through my mind when I see this stuff. Do you think ‘Is it weird that it’s important to me to get other people to hate this group?’
Never mind. Never Read the Replies, but I did read the replies and they convinced me Nate’s theory doesn’t stand to too much scrutiny. One, predictit has similar numbers but whales don’t exist because of $850 price cap and two the markets basically mirror the same perceived jump in PA for Trump, which isn’t really a statement on overall popular vote.
my prediction for NC is that more ballots are affected than the difference in votes there. it might be close to that in FL too. bigger spread expected, but closer to vote time.