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Js1

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Js1

  1. The ICE shootings are a tipping pointDonald Trump's approval on immigration has collapsed 17 points since taking office, and support for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement has swung 50 points since Sept. 2024.Note: I wrote this article the morning of Monday, Jan. 26, before news broke that Greg Bovino is being fired as “commander at large” of U.S. border control (the White House disputes the reporting), and that Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski could be next. Bovino’s ouster is further evidence that the politics of immigration enforcement are deteriorating quickly for the Trump administration II. This is a tipping pointIt is not normal for the public to move 50 points on an issue in just a little over a year. In their classic 1992 book The Rational Public, political scientists Benjamin Page and Robert Shapiro documented that collective public opinion is remarkably stable. Americans’ views on most issues shift only a few percentage points per decade, much of it due to older cohorts being replaced by younger ones. Persuasion is limited, so the aggregate is coherent and slow to adjust. Politicians, pundits, and campaigns all try to move the polls, and mostly fail. Page and Shapiro argue that opinion change requires new information to meet five conditions simultaneously: it must be received by enough people, understood, relevant to the policy question/issue domain, discrepant with prior beliefs, and credible. Most information fails at least one of these tests, which is why opinion on issues is usually stable. (More on this in an APSR article Page and Shapiro wrote with Glenn Dempsey before The Rational Public was published here.) But when a major event — or sustained coverage of undeniable evidence — satisfies all five conditions at once, opinion can move quickly. Scholars of public opinion and political communication call this an information-diffusion threshold: the point at which information satisfies the five conditions above and starts moving priors en masse. I’m going to call this a “tipping point:” a point in time when a new piece of information causes many individuals to update their opinions in the same direction at roughly the same time, producing a noticeable break in the polls and notable, directionally aligned changes in policy. Now, coming back to the present, the ICE shootings and Trump Administration’s response shootings satisfy all five conditions: The videos of federal officers killing U.S. citizens have been received by the vast majority of adults, they’re easy to understand, directly relevant to whether ICE enforcement has gone too far, they’re sharply discrepant with the narratives Trump’s DHS is pushing out (especially about Alex Pretti, who they initially claimed planned to massacre law enforcement), and they’re credible (there’s lots of video from independent sources covering all angles of both crimes).
  2. Marginal upgrade? Brown and Smothers produced - Smothers has 260 career carries in 3 seasons and Brown has 240 carries in 4 seasons. Clark had 1 good game in what was basically an exhibition game against Michigan, where we didn't have Wisner or Baxter, and 55 carries for his entire career. We traded "maybe" but "sure things"
  3. A decade after the company got fined for "reckless disregard" for sanctions against Iran And they're still doing that too
  4. It's a cumbersome process to be canned in 3 years.
  5. They don't want to do the essays, personality tests and homework https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/browns-are-using-essays-homework-personality-tests-in-coaching-search
  6. Bovino is the first scalp. The Atlantic: Gregory Bovino has been removed from his role as Border Patrol “commander at large” and will return to his former job in El Centro, California, where he is expected to retire soon, according to a DHS official and two people with knowledge of the change. Bovino’s sudden demotion is the clearest sign yet that the Trump administration is reconsidering its most aggressive tactics after the killing Saturday of 37-year-old Alex Pretti by Border Patrol agents under Bovino’s command.
  7. It should end up rotating. So that every P4 gets their own slot
  8. Will you ever shut the fuck up, you aggy wannabe
  9. I am quite sure I read the Big 12 said in their release they would be moving into a Friday/Saturday rotation, so the ACC will take the other slot 2026 - Big 12 Friday night / ACC noon Saturday 2027 - ACC Friday night / Big 12 noon Saturday A P4 needed to grab that Friday night spot that the Pac 12 abandoned (sorry AAC), and this keeps the ACC from having to go ahead to head with the B1G on Saturday night Friday night - Big 12/ACC Saturday morning - ACC/Big 12 Saturday afternoon - SEC Saturday night - B1G
  10. Abbott had a mealy mouthed statement blaming Walz's "lack of leadership," but still said ICE needs to re-calibrate their mission Their internals must be bad bad bad in an election year.
  11. Stand your ground It's not just for shooting unarmed minorities walking in front of your house anymore!
  12. Texas is only a game back of 2nd place at 4-2, with South Carolina and Vanderbilt at 6-1, and Tennessee still leading the SEC at 6-0 Texas: @ Florida, OU, LSU, Kentucky, @ Vanderbilt, @ Tennessee, @ Arkansas (reschedule), MSST, Georgia, @ Alabama South Carolina: @ Auburn, @ aggy, MSST, Tennessee, @ LSU, @ Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri, @ Kentucky Vanderbilt: @ Ole Miss, Florida, @ Kentucky, OU, Texas, @ Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, @ Tennessee Tennessee: @ Ole Miss (TBD on new date), MSST, @ Georgia, @ South Carolina, Missouri, Texas, aggy, @ OU, @ LSU, Vanderbilt (and a non-conf date @ UConn) If you can pick the finishes of these teams, I'd be impressed. Because it looks like the eventual SEC regular season winner could have 3-5 losses.
  13. Someone is def going to rant about Kyle Flood lol
  14. Js1 replied to Lobwedgephil's topic in Movies and TV
    Severance ain’t going nowhere either
  15. He said all are welcome especially ICE
  16. Episode 1 - man ass, shitting Episode 2 - man dong (fake), pissing Episode 3 is going to be a full blown orgasm onto the camera lens
  17. That’s a big chunk of this fanbase on surly right now
  18. South Carolina beat the shit out of Vanderbilt
  19. I actually have no idea what to make of the SEC right now. Does feel like anyone can win any night.
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