Everything posted by Hank Chinaski
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
Yup, the sample size isn’t that small anymore. He’s past the count of PAs and batted-ball event at which the K rate, BB rate and contact quality tend to stabilize and accurately describe who he is. These aren’t necessarily predictive per se, but they are real indicators. He’s a disaster and is unlikely to even come close to justifying the contract that Crane gave him.
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
I didn’t love it. I thought it was one year and several million dollars too much. I don’t think I was the only one. That said, I did think Abreu would be better offensively than Yuli was in 2022, so I did expect that it would be an upgrade, even if it was too much money. But beyond what fans think, the problem is that there was reason to believe that Abreu’s ability was declining. A national writer said as much at the time - that his bat speed was slowing and his 2022 season showed it. This is the kind of stuff analytically-inclined front offices would be likely to detect. But the owner decided that we didn’t need anyone leading a coherent front office this past off-season. That’s the problem.
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Roschon already making an impression in Chicago
Hells yes, my desk has always been a goddamned disaster; now it all makes sense.
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
10 K, 1 BB by the lineup today. Nice work, fellas. Crane’s hubris and nonchalance about having nobody run the organization this past winter is coming home to roost. Perhaps an analytically-inclined GM wouldn’t have outbid himself for the right to overpay an old 1B with diminished bat speed. (That this is the first year of his deal, not the last, is a sobering thought.)
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Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
Haha why in the hell would anyone actually be upset about a representative of a future conference member attending a meeting? “They shouldn’t be allowed to attend a meeting until 2024!” What the holy fuck does it possibly matter? These imbeciles will bitch about absolutely anything Texas does, and feel victimized by it.
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
Bregman’s expected wOBA is .358, right in line with his career mark. I realize that you get no points for this, but it basically tells you that his Ks and BBS are good and his contact quality is the same as always. It suggests some bad luck. No real reason to worry about him. Abreu is a different story. His expected wOBA is .278; his average exit velo is way down, his walks are down, his strikeouts are up. He is a mess. Definite cause for concern.
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
- Tell Me About The Houston Oilers
What a weird thing to do. They were the Tennessee Oilers for what, 2 years? People in Nashville don’t give a shit about that name/logo. I’m all for the throwback thing, but that is usually because it celebrates a different era of the team. I can’t see a celebration of the 1997-98 Tennessee Oilers moving the needle for any fan of that franchise. Also, it this is done just to “troll” houstonians, I’d change the Texans uniforms to something as closely resembling the oilers as legally possible, including the logo.- Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
I mean, I said last year that the 2022 Astros reminded me of the 2006 Astros, so prepare to join the club.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Altuve was the 4th best hitter in MLB last year, about 65% better than league average. Since 2016 he’s been 52%, 60%, 35%, 37%, 28% and 64% better than league average (2020 doesn’t count). It’s fair to say he should be around 30-40% better than average this year. Maricio Dubon currently is 2% worse than league average and has a slugging% of .385. In his career he has been 6%, 1%, 26%, and 42% worse than average. It’s generous to say that he should be 5-10% below average this year. Jose Altuve is a massive, massive, enormous offensive upgrade over Maricio Dubon.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Tucker’s actual results are still pretty far behind his expected results (based on contact quality, BB and K), even though his expected numbers have dropped a bit in the last week or so. He’s had some bad luck, as has Bregman. Unfortunately, the rest of the crappy lineup cannot tolerate bad luck from the 3 good hitters.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
It should. Replacing Dubon with Altuve figures to be a massive upgrade. Replacing Quad A with Brantley should be an upgrade. McCormick will help. Though that offensive improvement will probably be offset by replacing 40% of the rotation with Bielak and whoever else.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
I think the issue is…they’re just not very good. We’re talking about a lineup featuring Dubon, Maldonado, Meyers, a washed-up Abreu, Hensley/Julks, and Pena almost every day. That’s 2/3 of the lineup made up of quad-A guys, an old 1B whose skill level has significantly declined, and a SS who struggles to recognize balls out of the zone. If that were any other team, we wouldn’t be expecting much from them. It’s just an objectively mediocre/bad lineup, totally dependent on Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Yes.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
15 straight scoreless innings.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
…or replace the manager.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Diaz looks good enough defensively…and Fangraphs gave him a 50-grade “fielding” tool in the preseason (he was their 80th overall prospect), which is average. He’s fine defensively.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
He was right about Abreu.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Whitley last posted an ERA under (or anything remotely close to) 3.50 in 2017 between (mostly) A and AA. It is currently 6.00 (7.22 FIP) in the PCL.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
This is/was my thinking. You can say we went into the season with 6 starters, but there’s context: 1. LMJ is oft-injured, coming off a season in which he made 8 starts, with no real timetable. He’s thrown more than 130 innings exactly once in his 6 seasons (excluding 2020). 2. Brown is a rookie who threw 126 innings between AAA/MLB last year - a career high for a single season. My perspective is that if these are 2 of your six starters, you lack depth. Now, if the club had reason to believe that anyone they could have signed to a 1-year deal was unlikely to be significantly better than Bielak or Whitley or someone else, fine. They may be right. I’d just feel more confident in that if they, you know, had a general manager/front office leadership making that decision.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
I wouldn’t have counted on McCullers. I thought I made that clear.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
No.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
I guess our disagreement stems from the idea that LMJ should have ever been counted on as a reliable starting pitcher. I’m of the opinion that he isn’t.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
*Sixth. And there were six guys last year. There was plenty of discussion around potentially adding rotation depth. Fair point regarding the farm system, but Brown kinda is that guy this year, no? Hopefully there is another that can plug in and perform reasonably well. - Tell Me About The Houston Oilers
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