Everything posted by Hank Chinaski
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
Except McCullers was already down. So it was really 5. They should have brought in someone. Eovaldi is an example. Someone like that. And no, he specifically is not setting the world on fire yet, but he has a track record and I’d take my chances on him over some quad-A guy.
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
In 238 games, Chas has a 113 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR (so, around 3.3 per 160 games). That’s not prime George Springer or anything, but it is significantly better than “just a guy.” Though, in fairness, he is “just a guy” against righties…but an all-star against lefties.
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
Nah, Bregman’s underlying data always looked fine. Even two weeks ago, he was hitting the ball as hard as always, striking out and walking as frequently as always, etc. It was clearly bad luck that was driving his poor outcomes and there was no reason at all to worry about him. You can’t say that about Abreu. His contact quality is way down. His strikeouts are way up. We’ve reached a point in the season at which this data tends to stabilize. The Keith Law critique was based on signs that his bat speed was slowing down. That looks prescient right now. I’m not saying he’s done, but there are real indicators that he could be in decline; he wouldn’t be the first guy whose skill and production fell off a cliff in the second half of his 30s.
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Bijan Robinson is special
Was hoping Bijan would go to a team with a good QB. Falcons may not be a bad fit, since they do have an offensive system geared to run and has been successful doing so even with subpar QB play. Unfortunately he’ll look ridiculous because of those those fucking hideous XFL uniforms they wear.
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Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
Is he aware it isn’t 1982 anymore?
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
The Rays are good. Obviously they won’t continue to win 80% of their games, but they’re really good. Their offense should slow down (though should be solidly above average) but the pitching is legit.
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2023 NFL DRAFT
Who the fuck are these douchebags
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
That’s probably not much worse than today’s major league lineup.
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2023 Houston Astros Thread
- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
It’s all true. It’s also why nobody should expect it to change that drastically when Altuve does come back. He should be worth about 3 wins over 60% of a season (which is great, but it’s not going to turn this team into a real contender). This team will be in a dogfight for a wild card spot. Hopefully.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Oh I agree. I just went down a rabbit hole of Dubon savant data (never thought I’d utter that sentence) and noticed his contact and K rates. He’s nearing sufficient PAs for those to be meaningful. If he has turned himself into something like an average hitter, that would be great.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Dubon is striking out way less than he has throughout his career. We should know if this is real or not in the next few weeks (he’s also walking less, but not by much). For now, his contact rates are up. He’s not hitting the ball any harder or barreling it more frequently, though his “weak” contact is down. He’s hitting more ground balls and line drives so far. Also hitting it to opposite field more. We’ll see if he has made real adjustments and if they continue to pay off. His .346 BABIP is likely to come down (his career rate is .278), and with a sub-4% BB rate, so will his offensive value. Still, it’s not out of the question that he has made some changes/improvements, and he could perhaps be an average-ish hitter.- Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
I mean, you’re right…calling someone “Chris Simms 2.0”, and believing that this is somehow a negative thing/implies failure, is fucking idiotic; but in fairness to these dipshits, half of our own fan base would think the same thing.- Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
Right, words don’t exist (in English anyway) to describe it. I think I first realized this in earnest when I witnessed them trying to rationalize the 2005 season. If asked, they’d tell you that VY wasn’t even a real QB, Mack was a bad coach, and the rest of the players were overrated. But they’d also say that the success of any of those three entities (VY, Mack, rest of team) was made possible only by their being buoyed by other two (who they’d discredit if taken individually). It truly was (and remains) a step beyond just regular, everyday cognitive dissonance.- Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
Wait, are they under the impression that Manning is competing for the starting QB job on 2023? Wtf.- 2023 MLB thread
I mean, he went to a WS with each of them, and won one.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Or with a mediocre pitching staff.- Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread
- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Agreed, they’re the only opponent who has failed to win their series against the Astros in 2023.- 2023 Spring Practice to Fall Camp Thread - Just hook it to my veins!
Together, they should play an elite third base.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Yes, but a 25% K rate is a signal, and we get new data points every day.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
They’ve had stretches like this the last few years for sure. Thing is, Springer, Correa, Verlander, Cole, Altuve (for a long time) aren’t walking through that door.- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
What you’re saying is reasonable and I hope you’re right; but I disagree with this part. Fangraphs projects 88 wins right now, and that’s based on nothing but objective data. Now obviously they don’t always nail it, but it is objective support for my subjective forecast. I am probably not as high on Brown (at least for this year) as others, and he’s essentially replacing the best performing pitcher in baseball. Again, if he allows twice the runs JV did (per inning), I’d be ecstatic. I’d bet the over. I’m also not that high on Pena. He’s good (not great) defensively (gold glove notwithstanding) and he’s not a very good offensive player. I don’t see any reason to assume he’ll improve at the plate just because he has a year in the bigs. He’s probably a 100 wRC+ guy unless he stops swinging at bullshit (which, to this point, he’s shown no inclination to do).- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
Loss of Verlander’s 1.75 ERA over 175 innings + loss of Altuve and his career-best OPS+ for at least 40% of the season (and what we do get is unlikely to be as good as last year) + regression from the bullpen. That all adds up. Over 95? What am I missing here?- 2023 Houston Astros Thread
What management? We didn’t need management this off-season because we’re the Astros. - 2023 Houston Astros Thread
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